March 10, 2008
2008 Predictions Revisited
It is easy to make predictions, but who is brave enough to revisit them to see how well their predictions are holding up? It's time to be held accountable for my predictions and review the clairvoyant performance to date:
1.The effect of the market "correction" will lead to a rise in bankruptcies and foreclosures. It doesn't take a mind-reader to make this prediction; nonetheless, there is ample evidence of both. Bloomberg reported on March 6th that foreclosures are up as owners "give up". The Boston Globe reported that Massachusetts foreclosures were up 128% in January. The New York Times reports that bankruptcies were up 18% in February. No surprises here - clairvoyance rating: 10
2. Increase in mergers and/or lateral movement. Too early to tell on this one. Clairvoyance rating: 5
3. Business Intelligence Tools will be showcased more in tech shows. If LegalTech New York is any indicator, I am dead wrong on this one. E-Discovery won the day then. Next week is the ABA TechShow in Chicago - we'll see. Clairvoyance rating: 1
4. Election year lawsuit opportunity due to claims of voters. This one is too early to tell as well, but given the rising prospect of the Democratic Party getting mired in an election year lawsuit over the Florida and Michigan delegate disqualification debacle, I may give myself points for being in the ballpark. Clairvoyance rating: 6
5. Calls for the death of the billable hour continue, but to no avail. I have had to write in defense of the billable hour a few times this year (see posts on January 7th and February 19th) but I certainly see the value in alternative fee arrangements - so long as firms know the cost of their services. Even so, I feel compelled to respond when others claim that the billable hour is the cause of frustration with clients. I understand the desire for cost certainty, but trust is the issue to me, not the billing method. That hasn't stopped many from writing about it (see the posts for the links). Clairvoyance rating: 10
6. Lawyers won't be lacking for work in 2008 even if economy is bad. Even though Citibank and Hildebrandt claimed in their 2008 Client Advisory that firms faced a "Perfect Storm" of indicators leading to financial hard times for law firms, reality isn't abiding by their predictions - at least so far. David Lat at Above the Law ran a survey asking associates what areas of practice were hot and which were not. Not surprisingly, transactional law, particularly real estate, is lower than it has been the past 3 years. However, litigation is up, particularly commercial and patent litigation. The next highest area was bankruptcy. Clairvoyance rating: 10
Just like any forecast, circumstances dictate some review and modifications of the predictions. Measure and adjust. Since I am doing well with both #1 and 6, they stay as is. I would like to see more return on question 2, but will let it slid until 2nd quarter review. #3 is in need of some changing but I am holding on to this for at least one more show. The election year prediction should be broadened to any party litigating anything related to the election. That includes the Democratic Party if they so decide to self-destruct. Finally, the calls for the billable hour to die will never die - and neither will the billable hour - so that prediction stays as is.
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Filed under Forecasting by Brian J. Ritchey
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